The actual number of Alzheimer’ s disease patients in the world remains elusive primarily because diagnostic criteria have not been unified in many of the developing countries. The number is probably somewhere between 30 and 50 millions. The number of people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), a prodromal form of Alzheimer’s disease, would be comparable. Moreover, the number of preclinical Alzheimer’s disease patients probably exceeds 50 millions.
Therefore, more than 100 million people in the world require some sort of anti-Alzheimer medications. The market size for presymptomatic diagnosis, preventive medicine and therapy will be $5 billions, $50 billions and even more, respectively, in our estimation. Prevention of Alzheimer’s disease will also reduce the number of caregivers, who would otherwise contribute to the society in a different manner.
The socioeconimical cost of Alzheimer’s disease is estimated to become approximately $5 trillions in 2050 unless the disease becomes preventable. Preventing the disease at a cost of $50 billions will reduce the world burdens by the factor of 100 (10,000%). This will certainly minimize the taxes that younger generations will be paying.
Right now, the USA and EU are major markets for Alzheimer’s disease medications. China and then India, however, will catch up sooner or later because their societies are rapidly aging and because they account for one third of the world population. China reportedly has more than 10 million demented patients already.